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Arbitrage of Synthetic Asian Handicap Bets
This article shows how to implement synthetic Asian handicap bets, and how to construct a Dutch book so that any arbitrage opportunities arising between these synthetic bets and actual bets can be...
View ArticleAn easy guide to closing out trades
Closing out a trade to lock in your profit is one of those basic techniques that everyone should understand, but is surprisingly hard to find explained. So here is a simple account. Closing out a back...
View ArticleThe Impact of the Point of Consumption Tax on the UK Betting Market
So, is it really Doomsday on September 30th 2014 with all these big players pulling out of the UK market? Or will we survive and make and find new and better ways to gamble in the future? I believe it...
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Optimal bets for dog and horse races
Given a set of probabilities for the runners in a multi-player competition, how much should you bet on each runner to maximise your expected profits? The standard reference paper for this topic was...
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Fixed-Odds Betting and Traditional Odds
In fixed-odds betting, the concept of ‘odds’ generally refers to the price, the amount the punter gets back if the bet wins. However, there is another, more traditional, definition of odds – one that...
View ArticleSports Betting Brokers – What, Why and Who?
I would like to pose and try and answer the what, why and who questions about sports betting brokers. What are sports betting brokers, why do they exist and do we need them and finally who are the...
View ArticleSo, did you relocate abroad? The Post-PoC-Apocalyptic UK betting market
I received a comment on this article some time back which reminded me that an update was long overdue – and indeed, this article represents the first of a series which I have committed to write on...
View ArticleWhat Election Bettors Can Learn From Pro Sports Modellers
Opinion polls can’t be ‘wrong’ because they aren’t predicting or projecting anything. They are just a set of data, a bunch of numbers. Some evidence. Just like any kind of evidence, polls need to be...
View ArticleHorse racing – and they’re off!
The scope of horse racing betting was changed forever at the turn of the century with the advent of the exchanges, and that has now filtered through even more considerably in the offerings that the...
View ArticleAccumulators and compounding
A bit of a departure from my usual favoured topics, but I have been inspired by a seeming lack of articles around this subject, which is relatively simple but often underplayed or underestimated. The...
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Conditional Logistic Regression for Traders
Logistic Regression (Or the “Logit Model”) is a fundamental tool for modelling and predicting the outcome of 0/1 events. (Win or lose). In this article, I’m going to take things a bit further and...
View ArticleLiquidity and ‘getting on’
Whether you are a large well-funded syndicate supported by hundreds of highly skilled Quantitative Analysts and Data Modelers or if you are just a punter with an eye for a ‘value’ bet it seems that...
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James DeGale vs. Chris Eubank Jr betting preview
A close look at the James DeGale vs. Chris Eubank Jr odds Inform your James DeGale vs. Chris Eubank Jr predictions James DeGale vs. Chris Eubank Jr betting: Where is the value? In an enticing...
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A comparison of level and percentage staking
Level vs. percentage staking Distribution of yields for level versus percentage staking The asymmetry of percentage losses and gains In this article level and percentage staking strategies are...
View ArticleUK Biggest Horse Race of the Year ‘The Grand National 2019’
Sports Trading Network newest contributor MLT @mylittletip shares his thoughts & insight to the biggest horse race of the year! There are two ways to study horse racing. One is by the formbook:...
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2019 US Masters predictions
How important is experience? Applying the strokes gained statistical model Assessing course history Comparing model odds vs. market odds As the 2019 edition of The Masters approaches, there will be...
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What can sports bettors learn from economic bubbles?
Finding value in a bubble The necessity of shorting for market efficiency The importance of two-way information The subprime mortgage bubble is just one example of irrationality within a market...
View ArticleThe Lucky 15
Following on from of his successful Grand National article we are delighted to publish this exclusive content from @mylittletip. Why 97.3% of people should NOT do multiples. Let’s start with the...
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Why you need to look at betting market data in more detail
What is the betting consensus? Why are betting consensus numbers popular? What can bettors look at instead? Betting consensus numbers, or bet splits, are some of the most popular and...
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Walking back betting markets
Walking back betting markets What does blind tasting have to do with betting? How to read a betting market Why building a profile is important Some people might think that being a successful bettor...
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